You Paid the Tariffs. Companies Are Getting the Refunds.

On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not give the President the power to impose tariffs¹. The ruling voided the “reciprocal” tariffs on more than 90 countries and the fentanyl-related tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China². Tariffs under other laws, such as those on steel and cars, were not affected².

Before the ruling, U.S. Customs and Border Protection had collected about $166 billion of the voided tariffs³. About $126 billion of it has now been paid back, plus interest⁴. To see who is getting that money, start with who paid it.

Who actually paid the tariffs

A tariff is paid to U.S. Customs by the importer of record when goods enter the country. It is not paid by the foreign seller, and not by the shopper at the till⁵. The real question is how much of that cost the importer passed on.

The Kiel Institute studied more than 25 million shipment records worth almost $4 trillion⁶. It found that U.S. importers and consumers carried 96% of the tariff cost, and foreign exporters about 4%⁶.

Economists at the New York Fed reached a similar answer. U.S. firms and consumers carried 94% of the cost from January to August 2025, 92% in September and October, and 86% in November⁷. Over 2025 the average tariff on U.S. imports rose from 2.6% to 13%, and a 10% tariff was matched by only a 0.6 point cut in foreign export prices⁷.

After tariffs on India went up in August 2025, Indian exports to the U.S. fell by up to 24% while their prices stayed the same⁶. In the Kiel authors’ words, “They shipped less, not cheaper”⁶.

How a tariff reaches the shelf

A second New York Fed study, published on October 6, 2026, traced the cost from the border to the store. Import prices rise almost one for one in the first month, with about 90% of the tariff passed through⁸. For imported goods, about half the effect reaches consumer prices after three months and all of it by six⁸. A 10% tariff on all imports raises consumer goods prices about 2.6% after a year⁸.

By February 2026, tariffs had added 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation⁸. Without them, goods prices would have fallen slightly⁸.

The effect on inflation fades, but the higher prices stay⁸. The study puts the tariff effect on the level of goods prices near 3% in February 2026, easing toward about 2% by August⁸.

Where the $166 billion is going

On March 4, 2026, Judge Richard Eaton of the Court of International Trade ruled that the importers of record who paid the duties are “entitled to benefit” from the Supreme Court decision. Refunds go to the importer of record, not to customers who paid the cost indirectly⁹. By law, the refunds come back with interest¹⁰.

Treasury data shows the money leaving. Customs refunds were $22.0 billion in May 2026, $49.2 billion in June, $33.4 billion in July and $10.5 billion in August¹¹. In June the government refunded $49.2 billion while collecting $23.6 billion, so net customs receipts fell below zero, to minus $25.6 billion¹¹.

Follow $100 of the tariff money the court threw out. About $76 has gone back to the importers, and about $24 is still with the Treasury or being processed¹².

Large companies went to court early. Costco sued on November 28, 2025 to protect its right to full refunds, and companies including Bumble Bee Foods and Revlon filed similar suits¹³. FedEx pledged to refund consumers and shippers who paid its tariff charges if the company is made whole¹⁴.

On October 8, 2026, the Court of International Trade certified a class of importers that paid the tariffs between February 1, 2025 and February 19, 2026 but never filed a refund claim, “overwhelmingly small importers”¹⁵. The court had already ordered refunds in more than 4,000 individual lawsuits¹⁵. The government has appealed the nationwide refund order to the Federal Circuit¹⁶.

The tariffs did not go away

Within hours of the ruling, the White House put a 10% global import surcharge in place under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective February 24, 2026¹⁷. The law limits that surcharge to 150 days, and it expired on July 24, 2026¹⁷. A Section 301 duty replaced it the same day: 10% for 14 economies and 12.5% for 46 others, including China¹⁸.

The Budget Lab at Yale estimates that without the voided tariffs the average effective tariff rate was 9.1%, the highest since 1946 apart from 2025¹⁹. It would have been 16.9% if they had stayed¹⁹. After the Section 301 duty, the average rate is 11.1%, heading to 11.8% by the end of 2026²⁰.

Yale puts the cost to the average household at about $1,100 a year²⁰, or about $92 a month²¹.

So who paid?

The importers paid at the border and are being repaid with interest⁴. Shoppers paid through higher shelf prices: 86% to 96% of the cost landed in the U.S., depending on the study and the month^7,6. Those prices have not come back down⁸. Apart from pledges like FedEx’s¹⁴, the refunds stop at the importer⁹.